A core app supporting both Precision and Scenario-based forecasting, this tool lets users directly choose the way a time series should look. Building on top of the observed values of some base time series, users apply their intuition to add custom components that build a scenario into the future. The scenario, along with others, can then be used as external data in forecasts to drive the fit and direction of the model's predictions.
- Name the scenario so that you can reference it later.
- Select a time series to use as the base of the scenario. You can choose from data you added with Data Upload, Sceario-creation, previous forecasts, or GlobalPulse.
- Choose the way custom components add on to the base time series. This will determine the reference the components will use to calculate how much the variable is changing.
- Using your intution, add as many custom components as you need to get the scenario looking the way you want. For each component, you can choose how long it should be and how much it should change.
- When you are ready, submit the scenario and let Chronos handle the rest. You will automatically be redirected to the scenarios's page that you can get back to at any time.