Forecasting Challenges

Chronos' forecasting challenges look to be an engaging way to demonstrate the capabilitites of the platform while also giving the public valuable insight into predictions of the challenge's target. The forecasting setup and methodology is different for each challenge, however extensive research goes into understanding the target and what factors can help forecast it.

Another important demonstration of these challenges is to show how human intuition can be added to bring domain knowledge that usually isn't accounted for in most forecasting applications.

Current Challenge

In the near future, we plan to open up forecasting challenges to the community. Users will submit their own forecasts for the challenge's target series. From here, the community can start to pick out the top forecasters based on real world accuracy and give these forecasters the opportunity to earn from their accurate forecasting.

2022-Q4

Bitcoin Price

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Challenge Details

Target: Bitcoin Price

Training period: 2017-10-03 to 2022-09-30

Forecast period: 2022-10-01 to 2023-09-30

Algorithm	MAE	MAPE (%)
Scenario Alpha	3760.36	20.32
Default Prophet	5292.59	24.06

These forecasts are opinion and are for information purposes only. It is not intended to be investment advice. Seek a duly licensed professional for investment advice.

Past Challenges

2021-H2

WTI Crude Oil Price

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Challenge Details

Target: WTI Crude Oil Price

Training period: 2019-06-01 to 2021-05-51

Forecast period: 2021-06-01 to 2021-11-30

Algorithm	MAE	MAPE (%)
Nousot's SBF	6.10	8.57
Holt-Winters	5.67	7.34
Prophet	12.76	16.77
auto-ARIMA	3.66	5.04

These forecasts are opinion and are for information purposes only. It is not intended to be investment advice. Seek a duly licensed professional for investment advice.